Toll Index May 2025

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index April 2025

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index February 2025

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index January 2025 | -2.6% year over year

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index December 2024 | -2.6% year over year

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index November 2024 – hovering around the mean

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index October 2024

The October value of the Toll Index reads at 100.7 continuing a multi-month positive trend. It is up 1.3% on Steptember 2024 and up 6.1% on October 2023.

The Border Crossing Toll Index is adjusted for number of weekdays, time, month and MAUT-policy-regime fixed effects. For the newly defined Toll Index see here. The smoothing used is what I call the eye-balling smoothing.

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).