Flash IZA/Fable SWIPE Consumption Index at +6.5% in January 2025

Final January 2025 Consumption Data Shows Stronger Growth Than Initial Estimates

On January 22, I reported a 5.31% year-over-year increase in consumption based on the first 14 days of January 2025. This “flash estimate” provided an early indication of growth, comparing the initial two weeks of January 2025 to the same period in January 2024.

Now, with the complete data for January, I can confirm that the consumption index has stabilized at slightly above 6.5% year-over-year growth. This final figure not only exceeds the early estimate but also represents a notable rebound from December’s performance.

As anticipated, daily data updates refined the initial understanding, with the index reaching stability just a few days into February. This highlights the value of this dynamic, month-to-date tracking approach, offering timely insights while capturing the evolving picture as new data arrives.

Stay tuned for continuous updates, and explore the latest trends via the embedded live graph or directly at https://fable.radar.iza.

Even adjusting for inflation (2.8%) for January the index is above board.


Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

Flash IZA/Fable SWIPE Consumption Index at +5.31% in January 2025

The 14-day month-to-date data for January 2025 shows a 5.31% year-over-year increase in consumption.

This initial “flash estimate” compares the first 14 days of January 2025 with the same period in January 2024 and should not be interpreted as the final year-over-year figure for January. As new data arrives daily, we will calculate 15-day, 16-day, and subsequent month-to-date partials until a stable value is reached, typically about three days into February. Stay tuned, and follow daily updates via the embedded live graph or at https://fable.radar.iza.org.

Note: The inflation-adjusted SWIPE index in the graph above assumes January 2025 inflation matches December 2024 levels.

Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

December IZA/Fable SWIPE Index rests at -3.34%

Recent recordings of negative consumer sentiment appear to be translating into consumption restraint this December, as our SWIPE index shows a -3.34% year-over-year change for December 2024.

The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming German general election on February 23, 2025, and the anticipation of the approaching Trump era must have contributed to the mix.

It’s worth noting that the 14-day month-to-date data for December 2024 initially showed a +9.9% year-over-year increase. This spike was due to an unusually late Black Friday, which fell on November 29 this year, compared to November 24 in 2023. Consequently, part of the Black Friday spending, including Cyber Monday purchases, was reflected in the early December comparison.

Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

December IZA/Fable SWIPE Index at +9.9%

The December flash estimate of the IZA/Fable SWIPE consumption index shows a 9.9% year-on-year increase in credit card spending in Germany for the first half of the month, compared to the same period in December 2023. The index is updated daily as more data comes in, providing increasingly complete monthly partials, and it remains to be seen how much of this growth will hold by the end of December.

A key factor behind this significant rise is the timing of Black Friday, which fell on November 29 this year, compared to November 24 in 2023. This shift moved part of the Black Friday splurge, including Cyber Monday purchases, from November into December. The late Black Friday also caused the final November consumption growth figure to stabilize at 4%, down from the 6% indicated in the flash estimate.

Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

Toll Index October 2024

The October value of the Toll Index reads at 100.7 continuing a multi-month positive trend. It is up 1.3% on Steptember 2024 and up 6.1% on October 2023.

The Border Crossing Toll Index is adjusted for number of weekdays, time, month and MAUT-policy-regime fixed effects. For the newly defined Toll Index see here. The smoothing used is what I call the eye-balling smoothing.

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index September 2024

The September value of the Border Crossing Toll Index (just out) adjusted for number of weekdays, time, month and MAUT-policy-regime fixed effects (Figure 1) came at 100.6 continuing an improving trend of several months as can easily be seen in Figure 2 (smoothed). For the newly defined Toll Index see here.

Additionally Figure 3 shows the IZA/Fable SWIPE consumption index (raw in blue and adjusted for inflation in red). While neither goods transportation nor consumption is particularly strong they are both on a clear positive trend indicating that the Fall assessment of the German government which expects a .2% contraction for the year might be overly and unnecessarily pessimistic.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3