Tag: nowcasting

Toll Index February 2025

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The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index January 2025 | -2.6% year over year

Posted on

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index December 2024 | -2.6% year over year

Posted on

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index November 2024 – hovering around the mean

Posted on

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

The Toll index was redefined in 2024 to account for various toll-related policy changes like including lighter trucks in the system or adding roads to the toll road network.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index October 2024

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The October value of the Toll Index reads at 100.7 continuing a multi-month positive trend. It is up 1.3% on Steptember 2024 and up 6.1% on October 2023.

The Border Crossing Toll Index is adjusted for number of weekdays, time, month and MAUT-policy-regime fixed effects. For the newly defined Toll Index see here. The smoothing used is what I call the eye-balling smoothing.

The Toll Index was first proposed in IZA DP5522 which was published in the Journal of Forecasting. It has been widely covered in national and international media (selection):


Focus Magazin,
Tim Harford – The undercover economist,
Financial Times,
MoneyWeek,
WirtschaftsWoche,
CNN International,
DRS3 Swiss public radio,
Deutsche Welle.

Citation: “Nowcasting business cycles using toll data.” Journal of Forecasting 32:4 (2013): 299–306(with K. F. Zimmermann).

Toll Index September 2024

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The September value of the Border Crossing Toll Index (just out) adjusted for number of weekdays, time, month and MAUT-policy-regime fixed effects (Figure 1) came at 100.6 continuing an improving trend of several months as can easily be seen in Figure 2 (smoothed). For the newly defined Toll Index see here.

Additionally Figure 3 shows the IZA/Fable SWIPE consumption index (raw in blue and adjusted for inflation in red). While neither goods transportation nor consumption is particularly strong they are both on a clear positive trend indicating that the Fall assessment of the German government which expects a .2% contraction for the year might be overly and unnecessarily pessimistic.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Figure 3