UK elections 2019 – Odds, Polls, Google buzz

Based on Google Trends data  the Conservative party will beat the Labour party by about 7 percentage points in terms of the popular vote while the LibDems will trail the Conservatives by about 35 points.

The pollsters have the Conservatives leading Labour by anywhere between 6 and 15 percentage points in 14 polls in December with the average prediction at 9.5 pct points.

The bookies have the odds at 1/33 for a Conservative victory and 2/5 for an overall Conservative majority.

In Google search the footprints of Labour, Conservative and LibDems in the last seven days average to 42, 30 and 20 points respectively.

Labour always leads the Conservatives in Google buzz most likely due to demographics


We can still use the elections of 2015 and 2017 to take out party composition fixed effects from the Google data. When we do so we project that Labour will fall 5.4 to 8.5 percentage points behind the Conservatives in the popular vote while the LibDems will trail by 33.3 to 36.4 points.