Flattening the COVID-19 curve: What works

“…policies preventing close contacts in large groups, such as public events, private gatherings, and schools are the most effective in reducing new infections… mediated by changes in population mobility patterns, which are consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors…

From our column at voxeu.org on our paper (joint with K. Tatsiramos and B. Verheyden)

On google scholar (all sources).

Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. We remove concurrent policy bias by taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions. The main result of the paper is that cancelling public events and imposing restrictions on private gatherings followed by school closures have quantitatively the most pronounced effects on reducing the daily incidence of COVID-19. They are followed by workplace as well as stay-at-home requirements, whose statistical significance and levels of effect are not as pronounced. Instead, we find no effects for international travel controls, public transport closures and restrictions on movements across cities and regions. We establish that these findings are mediated by their effect on population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors.

Keywords: COVID-19, public policies, non-pharmaceutical interventions, mul- tiple events, mobility

JEL codes: I12, I18, G14

Download from IZA Discussion Paper Series.