The 14-day month-to-date data for January 2025 shows a 5.31% year-over-year increase in consumption.

This initial “flash estimate” compares the first 14 days of January 2025 with the same period in January 2024 and should not be interpreted as the final year-over-year figure for January. As new data arrives daily, we will calculate 15-day, 16-day, and subsequent month-to-date partials until a stable value is reached, typically about three days into February. Stay tuned, and follow daily updates via the embedded live graph or at https://fable.radar.iza.org.

Note: The inflation-adjusted SWIPE index in the graph above assumes January 2025 inflation matches December 2024 levels.

Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

Recent recordings of negative consumer sentiment appear to be translating into consumption restraint this December, as our SWIPE index shows a -3.34% year-over-year change for December 2024.

The uncertainty surrounding the upcoming German general election on February 23, 2025, and the anticipation of the approaching Trump era must have contributed to the mix.

It’s worth noting that the 14-day month-to-date data for December 2024 initially showed a +9.9% year-over-year increase. This spike was due to an unusually late Black Friday, which fell on November 29 this year, compared to November 24 in 2023. Consequently, part of the Black Friday spending, including Cyber Monday purchases, was reflected in the early December comparison.

Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

The December flash estimate of the IZA/Fable SWIPE consumption index shows a 9.9% year-on-year increase in credit card spending in Germany for the first half of the month, compared to the same period in December 2023. The index is updated daily as more data comes in, providing increasingly complete monthly partials, and it remains to be seen how much of this growth will hold by the end of December.

A key factor behind this significant rise is the timing of Black Friday, which fell on November 29 this year, compared to November 24 in 2023. This shift moved part of the Black Friday splurge, including Cyber Monday purchases, from November into December. The late Black Friday also caused the final November consumption growth figure to stabilize at 4%, down from the 6% indicated in the flash estimate.

Linke to Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index

We have just released a new consumption index for Germany just in time as macro-economic conditions are taking center stage again: global supply chain issues, geopolitical turmoil, economic slow-down in much of the world economy (e.g. China stimulus package, USA interest rate cuts, ECB rate cuts, or a mixed German business cycle and a government forecast of contraction in 2024 etc), climate phenomena, right wing populism or lesser but potentially impactful disruptions such as the advent of generative AI.

Final consumption amounts to over 70% of German GDP, whereas household final consumption (more likely to be in our data than, say, government final expenditures) amounts to over 50% of the German GDP. This demonstrates the importance of a consumption indicator for Germany and beyond. Consumption and the Labor Market intermediated by economic growth are interdependent like yin and yang.

Our indicator is informed by daily ingested data. The preliminary value for a given month will be released around the 20th of the month. Incoming data then updates the index daily until it is finalized 2-3 days after the end of the month.

All changes are reflected in the live graph of the index below.

The IZA/Fable Data Consumption Indicator for Germany is based on consumer and small business transactions data from FableData, a leading provider of anonymized, pan-European spending data. It is and IDSC product, introduced in a joint paper of mine with Fable coauthors A.B. Martinez and F.S. Cereda.

The embedded graph above is live in the sense that it is continuously updated in a programmatic manner and it is interactive in the sense that you can zoom in and out of it. Notice also that blue annotations mark important shocks and time regimes useful for understanding the data. In mid-2025 our indicator will cover France and the UK in addition.

If you want to embed it in your website feel free to visit https://fable.radar.iza.org and copy an embed code snippet (top right). We’d be happy to hear how you are using it.

Paper: The IZA/Fable Swipe Consumption Index